Structuring Analysis of Drug Trafficking Organizations in Buffalo Area Exercise You are with a police intelligence unit that has been assigned to develop a

Structuring Analysis of Drug Trafficking Organizations in Buffalo Area Exercise You are with a police intelligence unit that has been
assigned to develop an assessment of major drug trafficking organizations
operating in the Buffalo area. Suggest how you would use the analytical tools
we discussed in class to structure your analysis. Assignment 1: Analytical Tools
You are with a police intelligence unit that has been assigned to develop an assessment of major drug
trafficking organizations operating in the Buffalo area. Suggest how you would use the analytical tools
we discussed in class to structure your analysis.
Assignment 2: ACH
This is an exercise based on a fictitious scenario for exercise purposes only.
Background:
The drug fentanyl is the basis for much of the opioid epidemic currently facing the US. It has reached the
stage where the Administration has declared a state of emergency. Much of the fentanyl and precursors
for making it are reaching the country from China or Mexico. New bureaucratic structures likely will be
put in place to better control the smuggling.
Scenario:
You have been appointed as the Director of a new Regional Drug Crime Intelligence Task Force (RDCITF)
for the Buffalo-Niagara region. This RDCITF is considered as a critical center due to the potential for drug
smuggling in large quantities across the US-Canadian border. An Executive Order has been issued
authorizing national intelligence agencies to provide national-level intelligence on the overseas activities
of foreign actors who are identified as being major players in the smuggling of drugs into the US. As the
RDCITF Director, your roles are to coordinate the intelligence collection by multiple agencies relating to
transnational organized crime and the drug trade and to provide actionable intelligence to federal, state,
and local law enforcement agencies.
The Task Force has received the following intelligence reporting over the last few days:
1. The NSA passed an intercept from Shanghai, China. The suspected leader, Huang Zhi Pen, of a major
drug smuggling organization told a colleague at an unknown location that “a shipload of toys would be
leaving in about two weeks.”
2. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police broke up a major drug smuggling ring in Vancouver, Canada, and
arrested all its known members. The RCMP’s assessment is that any significant smuggling of fentanyl
across West Coast routes would be disrupted for at least the next six months.
3. A well-placed and high-level source for the DEA in Mexico reported that due to increased attention by
US and Mexican law enforcement and to payment issues, Mexican drug groups were minimizing
connections with Chinese organized crime groups, at least for the near future. Mexican groups were still
trying to smuggle fentanyl that they were producing locally, but there were too many issues in dealing
with the Chinese.
4. An informant for the Buffalo Police Department told them that ‘word on the street’ was that some
very high quality fentanyl was expected to arrive sometime in October.
5. Coast Guard intelligence has reported that some suspect vessels off the coast of China had made
arrangements to transit the Panama Canal into the Atlantic Ocean in late September.
6. Ontario Provincial Police reported an increase in phone traffic and meetings among local drug groups,
including those who are suspected of cross-border smuggling. The police however have not established
sufficient probable cause to receive wiretap authorization.
7. Likewise, the Montreal police have reported increased activity (unspecified) among suspected
members of Chinese gangs in their area.
8. The CIA has not provided any specific reporting, but have offered to provide assistance on foreign
collection as applicable.
Task:
Using the ACH matrix in this week’s packet, use the ACH process to develop the most likely conclusion as
to the likely route for the drugs.
Assignment 3: Writing for Intelligence
Using the following short articles, write a one-sentence analytical summary for each that would be
useful for policy makers.
Article 1:
The second-in-command of the Iraqi group Harakat al Nujaba has threatened to attack US targets in the
Middle East if the US strikes “Iraqi groups,” according to Al Alam citing Baghdad al Youm on May 21.
Nujaba answers to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While Nasr al Shimri, the paramilitary
group’s deputy secretary general, said the chances of a military conflict spilling into Iraq as a result of
Iran-US tensions are low, he nonetheless warned that if “America attacks Iraqi groups or targets for the
excuse that they are tied to Iran, [this action] would have bad consequences…even for countries from
which [American] missiles are launched.” “If America targets Iraqi groups,” Shimri continued, “all
American bases and targets in the region will be targeted by us.” He vowed that “America would be the
big loser.” Nujaba’s threat comes as the US – following a May 19 rocket attack against the US embassy in
Baghdad – warned that it would “hold Iran responsible if any such attacks are conducted by its proxy
militia forces.”
Article 2:
Zakir Musa, a charismatic jihadist leader in Kashmir, has been killed, according to multiple reports.
Indian forces say they surrounded Musa in a village in South Kashmir, eventually killing him after a
firefight during which he refused to surrender. Thousands of protesters and mourners turned out for
Musa’s funeral earlier today, an indication of his own popularity, as well as the widespread anger with
Indian forces. Musa had been one of India’s most wanted terrorists, as he attempted to fuse a popular
discontent with al Qaeda-style jihadism. On Twitter, the Jammu & Kashmir Police lauded Musa’s death
as “a major success against terrorism.” He had been active for “six years,” or since approximately 2013,
and “was involved in number of terrorist activities.” Musa had “rocket, grenade launchers, projectiles,
huge ammunition and war like stores” in his possession, the J&K Police said. Musa led Ansar Ghazwat-ulHind (AGH), an al-Qaeda linked outfit that was established in 2017. His death comes at a time when
upstart groups, such as AGH, are attempting to reboot the jihad in Kashmir. AGH has been competing
with groups traditionally backed by the Pakistani state, as well as an upstart Islamic State “province,” for
support.
Article 3:
Al Qaeda’s As Sahab media has released a new video advertising the group’s role in an ambush on an
Afghan National Army (ANA) convoy in Paktika province. The purpose of the video isn’t just to highlight
this lone operation, however. Al Qaeda uses the footage to emphasize its alliance with the Taliban. The
production is noteworthy for several reasons. Most importantly, al Qaeda has refrained from publicizing
its presence in Afghanistan in recent years, rarely pointing to the presence of its men on the country’s
jihadist battlefields. This has been the case despite the fact that al Qaeda is known to operate in Paktika
and elsewhere. Instead, al Qaeda and its regional arm, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), fight
under the Taliban’s banner and don’t typically claim operations as their own. The new video, which was
produced by As Sahab’s media arm for the subcontinent, is titled, “Under the Shade of the Islamic
Emirate: Paktika – Ambush on the Convoy of Afghan National Army in the Hindi Mountains.” The title is
intended to reinforce al Qaeda’s role within the Taliban insurgency, as the jihadists fight together to
resurrect the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The video, which contains English subtitles, opens
with a narrator claiming that America has been defeated in Afghanistan. “Fifteen years ago from today,
if anyone had said that the super power of the time, America, would be defeated in Afghanistan, it
would have been hilarious for the world,” the speaker says. “But today it has become a reality.” He
claims the Americans, NATO and the ANA are an “army besieged in their bases.” Footage of a Western
military commander crying a podium is played during some of this boasting.
Article 4:
A Taliban suicide assault team stormed the offices of Counterpart International in Kabul earlier today.
Counterpart is a non-governmental organization (NGO) backed by United States Agency for International
Development (USAID) and others. The NGO’s work is intended to bolster civil society organizations
within Afghanistan, and its alumni “serve on regional high peace councils and have also gone on to
coordinate local peacebuilding efforts.” However, the Taliban sees Counterpart’s work as a threat to its
own extremist project. The jihadist group quickly claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack, which
reportedly began with an explosion and lasted several hours. The Taliban, which consistently refers to
itself as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, accuses Counterpart of promoting “western culture” and the
“mixing” of men and women. On Twitter, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid attempted to justify
the assault. The author(s) of Mujahid’s account accuse Counterpart of “mentoring Kabul admin workers
in various aspects of brutality, oppression, terror, anti-Islamic ideology & promotion of western culture.”
In another tweet, Mujahid wrote: “Counterpart implemented a dangerous program termed ‘Angel’
aimed at promoting open inter-mixing b/w men & women.” An article on Counterpart’s website decries
the appeal of “violent extremism” inside Afghanistan, with the “Taliban and ISIS being [the] most
prolific” actors. The piece at Counterpart’s website explains how both jihadist organizations recruit
minors and other young Afghans to their causes. The details concerning the raid are still coming out. It
appears to have begun with an explosion outside of the building Counterpart’s employees. A team of
jihadists then rushed in, laying siege to one or two buildings. Afghan security forces quickly swooped in,
reportedly ending the crisis after nearly six hours. The Taliban disputed earlier claims that the attack was
thwarted within a few hours. On his Twitter account, Mujahid claims that “car bomb parked near
Counterpart network” was “detonated” following the “initial attack,” killing a “large number of hireling
gunmen” — meaning members of the Afghan military or security forces. However, the precise casualty
count remains to be confirmed.

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