FINA369 Boston University Investment Analysis & Bloomberg Terminal Paper Please see the attached photo, the instructions r in there. My company is Ford Mot

FINA369 Boston University Investment Analysis & Bloomberg Terminal Paper Please see the attached photo, the instructions r in there. My company is Ford Motor, I’m attaching data and screenshot that you will be using but they are not enough, you will need Bloomberg terminal to do this. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)
Based on the income statement, a simple examination revealed worrying financials for
investors, there are several key aspects that are important to realize. There has been a
consistent decline in revenue from 2014-2017, however, in 2018, revenues increased by 0.58%.
Net sales consistently decreased year over year until 2018 as well. Additionally, operating
expenses are more than 70% of revenue each year, resulting in poor net income and poor
retention.
The balance sheet revealed a more positive outlook for Colgate. Short-term investments and
higher receivable’s than payable’s tell us that there will be consistent returns in the near future;
however, there was a drastic decrease in short-term investments in 2018. Long-term
investments are consistently increasing as well as long-term debt.
Positive cash flows from operating activities suggest strong management for day-to-day
business; however, there are poor cash flows from investing activities. Some poor investment
decisions may have been the result for poor retention in the past five years but with an
increase in cash in financing activities it is safe to assume potential upsides from these
investments.
Consistently higher operating expenses than gross profit resulted in a negative EBIT. Expected
future cash flows are also negative due to the negative growth in the past 5 years. I predicted a
slow increase in growth rates over the next few years. One important thing to note is that the
EBIT does not take into account operating income.
Figure 2, was used to show the valuation range using the Bloomberg WACC. I estimated a longterm growth rate of 1.50% based on the assumption that Colgate will recover in revenues. The
present value of future cash flows calculated to a negative values as a result of the decrease in
gross profit year-over-year. Estimated net debt assuming it stays similar to the net debt
12/31/2018. Using these inputs, I calculated a range of values based on different WAAC’s and
long-term growth rate assumptions. The absolute value was (78.51).
Figure three was used to compare the price-to-earnings, price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios
in the past ten years. This data was pulled from Bloomberg in order to analyze these valuation
metrics relative to the DCF. The P/E ratio changes over the years show a drastic increase from
2016 to 2017 indicating higher expected growth, this figure shot down in 2018 showing that the
expectations were reduced based on the performance of the company in this year. The P/B
shows a spike from 2014 to 2015; however, there was no further data. The price-to-sales ratio
had a spike in 2015 and consistency until 2017 but then a fall in 2018.
As there have been many signs for a recession to hit, this can affect Colgate’s returns. Colgate’s
main product line offers consumer staple products, meaning they are more recession-resistant
than other industries. This could drive the price for Colgate because investors may be
preparing to lock in their gains and start adjusting for a more recession-resistant portfolio.
Steady interest rates announced by the federal reserve have resulted in more available capital
for investments.
Some important fundamentals to highlight include the profitability, liquidity and growth. Figure
four, pulled from Bloomberg, simply shows some key ratios that can describe the liquidity of
the firm. The current ratio grows consistently over the ten-year period. We can also see a slow
movement each year holding more debt and less equity. Figure five shows the growth in the
past ten years. We can see an outlier in fiscal year 2011 with a drastic decrease in working
capital. However, this was shortly after the great recession. Much like the DCF, we can also see
the massive hit in revenues in 2015 as well as the consistent decline. Figure six focuses on the
returns and margins for the firm, recognizing profitability. The company has consistent returns
in all aspects (assets, capital and invested capital), with positive growth in the past ten years.
The EBIDTA margin is also growing at a slow pace. Net Income is worrisome due to the
steadiness then unusual spike in 2015.
I would recommend to sell this security. Based on the fundamental analysis, the enterprise
value and the key ratios, it is clear that the firm is having issues consistently generating strong
revenues and growth. Based on the DCF, with some conservative inputs, there was still a
negative share price for CL. This was a result of the negative future cash flows. Additionally,
there were consistently negative EBIT values since 2014 and continued into the projections.
The future cash flows for this company are negative, meaning it is a good time to sell especially
because it is overvalued. There are still other factors driving the stock price, anticipating a
recovery from Colgate and expected returns from investments.
Figure 7 shows the yield to maturity of 0.34, a convexity of 0.502 and a duration of 6.5 for a
bond expiring 2026 and principal amount of 1,010.
Using an option expiring in 58 days with a strike price of 65 and implied volatility of 21.90%, I
came to the conclusion that the value of the call option is equal to 4.94 and the value of the put
option is equal to 0.82 per share. (See figure 8).
APPENDIX
Figure 1: Discounted Cash Flow Colgate-Palmolive (CL)
Figure 2: Share price sensitivity & Inputs
Figure 3: P/E, P/B, P/S Graph
Figure 4: Liquidity
Figure 5: Growth
Figure 6: Profitability
Figure 7: Convexity, Duration & YTM
Figure 8: Black Scholes Model
Dover Corp (DOV US) – Standardized
In Millions of USD except Per Share
12 Months Ending
Cash from Operating Activities
+ Net Income
+ Depreciation & Amortization
+ Non-Cash Items
+ Stock-Based Compensation
+ Deferred Income Taxes
+ Other Non-Cash Adj
+ Chg in Non-Cash Work Cap
+ (Inc) Dec in Accts Receiv
+ (Inc) Dec in Inventories
+ Inc (Dec) in Accts Payable
+ Inc (Dec) in Other
+ Net Cash From Disc Ops
Cash from Operating Activities
FY 2014
12/31/2014
FY 2015
12/31/2015
FY 2016
12/31/2016
FY 2017
12/31/2017
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Cash from Investing Activities
+ Change in Fixed & Intang
+ Disp in Fixed & Intang
+ Disp of Fixed Prod Assets
+ Disp of Intangible Assets
+ Acq of Fixed & Intang
+ Acq of Fixed Prod Assets
+ Acq of Intangible Assets
+ Net Change in LT Investment
+ Dec in LT Investment
+ Inc in LT Investment
+ Net Cash From Acq & Div
+ Cash from Divestitures
+ Cash for Acq of Subs
+ Cash for JVs
+ Other Investing Activities
+ Net Cash From Disc Ops
Cash from Investing Activities
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Cash from Financing Activities
+ Dividends Paid
+ Cash From (Repayment) Debt
+ Cash From (Repay) ST Debt
+ Cash From LT Debt
+ Repayments of LT Debt
+ Cash (Repurchase) of Equity
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+ Increase in Capital Stock
+ Decrease in Capital Stock
+ Other Financing Activities
+ Net Cash From Disc Ops
Cash from Financing Activities
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Net Changes in Cash
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Cash Paid for Taxes
Cash Paid for Interest
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Reference Items
EBITDA
Trailing 12M EBITDA Margin
Net Cash Paid for Acquisitions
Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow to Firm
Free Cash Flow to Equity
Free Cash Flow per Basic Share
Price to Free Cash Flow
Cash Flow to Net Income
Source: Bloomberg
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
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#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rates
FY 2018
12/31/2018
Last 12M
09/30/2019
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
651.4
278.9
34.8
32.3
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#NAME?
#NAME?
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#NAME?
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#NAME?
-169.6
4.1
4.1
0.0
-173.7
-173.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-189.6
26.1
-215.7
0.0
-12.2
0.0
-371.4
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
-281.5
-116.0
-179.1
0.0
0.0
-25.5
2.4
-26.8
-35.5
-29.1
14.8
23.0
10.1
948.3
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
0.0
-25.5
-28.0
0.0
-451.0
#NAME?
5.4
#NAME?
131.3
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
1,263.0
17.61
215.7
774.5
876.2
662.6
5.32
20.74
1.70
Ford Motor Co (F US) – Adjusted
In Millions of USD except Per Share
FY 2014
12 Months Ending
12/31/2014
Revenue
#NAME?
+ Sales & Services Revenue
#NAME?
+ Financing Revenue
#NAME?
+ Other Revenue
#NAME?
– Cost of Revenue
#NAME?
+ Cost of Goods & Services
#NAME?
+ Cost of Financing Revenue
#NAME?
+ Research & Development
#NAME?
Gross Profit
#NAME?
+ Other Operating Income
#NAME?
– Operating Expenses
#NAME?
+ Selling, General & Admin
#NAME?
+ Depreciation & Amortization
#NAME?
+ Prov For Doubtful Accts
#NAME?
+ Other Operating Expense
#NAME?
Operating Income (Loss)
#NAME?
– Non-Operating (Income) Loss
#NAME?
+ Interest Expense, Net
#NAME?
+ Interest Expense
#NAME?
– Interest Income
#NAME?
+ Foreign Exch (Gain) Loss
#NAME?
+ (Income) Loss from Affiliates
#NAME?
+ Other Non-Op (Income) Loss
#NAME?
Pretax Income (Loss), Adjusted
#NAME?
– Abnormal Losses (Gains)
#NAME?
+ Merger/Acquisition Expense
#NAME?
+ Disposal of Assets
#NAME?
+ Early Extinguishment of Debt
#NAME?
+ Asset Write-Down
#NAME?
+ Gain/Loss on Sale/Acquisition of Business
#NAME?
+ Restructuring
#NAME?
+ Sale of Investments
#NAME?
+ Other Abnormal Items
#NAME?
Pretax Income (Loss), GAAP
#NAME?
– Income Tax Expense (Benefit)
#NAME?
+ Current Income Tax
#NAME?
+ Deferred Income Tax
#NAME?
+ Tax Allowance/Credit
#NAME?
Income (Loss) from Cont Ops
#NAME?
– Net Extraordinary Losses (Gains)
#NAME?
+ Discontinued Operations
#NAME?
FY 2015
12/31/2015
#NAME?
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FY 2016
12/31/2016
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FY 2017
12/31/2017
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
+ XO & Accounting Changes
Income (Loss) Incl. MI
– Minority Interest
Net Income, GAAP
– Preferred Dividends
– Other Adjustments
Net Income Avail to Common, GAAP
#NAME?
#NAME?
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Net Income Avail to Common, Adj
Net Abnormal Losses (Gains)
Net Extraordinary Losses (Gains)
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
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Basic Weighted Avg Shares
Basic EPS, GAAP
Basic EPS from Cont Ops
Basic EPS from Cont Ops, Adjusted
#NAME?
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Diluted Weighted Avg Shares
Diluted EPS, GAAP
Diluted EPS from Cont Ops
Diluted EPS from Cont Ops, Adjusted
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US GAAP
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
US GAAP
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
US GAAP
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
US GAAP
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
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#NAME?
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Reference Items
Accounting Standard
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (T12M)
EBITA
EBIT
Gross Margin
Operating Margin
Profit Margin
Sales per Employee
Dividends per Share
Total Cash Common Dividends
Capitalized Interest Expense
Depreciation Expense
Rental Expense
Source: Bloomberg
FY 2018
12/31/2018
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Last 12M
09/30/2019
157,978.0
145,645.0
12,299.0
34.0
145,150.0
135,635.0
9,515.0
FY 2019 Est
12/31/2019
146,066.1
FY 2020 Est
12/31/2020
143,034.6
12,828.0
0.0
6,724.0
11,165.0
14,280.9
15,452.0
4,112.8
5,060.8
6,055.0
6,450.6
6,055.0
6,450.6
2,177.9
3,563.7
-4,441.0
6,104.0
374.0
230.0
1,060.0
830.0
33.0
111.0
5,730.0
3,951.0
-366.0
4,079.0
1,779.0
135.0
1,644.0
0.0
0.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
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0.0
1,644.0
41.0
1,603.0
0.0
0.0
1,603.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
5,083.9
3,445.9
0.0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
US GAAP
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
2,177.9
3,563.7
2,177.9
3,563.7
4,959.6
5,294.6
3,970.0
0.41
0.41
1.27
0.76
0.76
1.24
1.14
1.14
1.33
4,007.0
0.41
0.41
1.27
0.76
0.76
1.24
1.14
1.14
1.33
10,979.5
7.52
12,203.0
8.53
4,112.8
9.78
2.82
3.40
5,060.8
10.80
3.54
3.70
0.60
0.60
17,059.0
10.80
8,081.0
6,104.0
8.12
3.86
3.22
787,157.68
0.60
2,420.1
5,500.0
108.0
Ford Motor Co (F US) – Standardized
In Millions of USD except Per Share
12 Months Ending
Total Assets
+ Cash, Cash Equivalents & STI
+ Cash & Cash Equivalents
+ ST Investments
+ Accounts & Notes Receiv
+ Accounts Receivable, Net
+ Notes Receivable, Net
+ Inventories
+ Raw Materials
+ Work In Process
+ Finished Goods
+ Other Inventory
+ Other ST Assets
+ Derivative & Hedging Assets
+ Deferred Tax Assets
+ Misc ST Assets
Total Current Assets
+ Property, Plant & Equip, Net
+ Property, Plant & Equip
– Accumulated Depreciation
+ LT Investments & Receivables
+ LT Investments
+ LT Receivables
+ Other LT Assets
+ Total Intangible Assets
+ Goodwill
+ Other Intangible Assets
+ Deferred Tax Assets
+ Derivative & Hedging Assets
+ Investments in Affiliates
+ Misc LT Assets
Total Noncurrent Assets
Total Assets
Liabilities & Shareholders’ Equity
+ Payables & Accruals
+ Accounts Payable
+ Accrued Taxes
+ Interest & Dividends Payable
+ Other Payables & Accruals
+ ST Debt
FY 2014
12/31/2014
FY 2015
12/31/2015
FY 2016
12/31/2016
FY 2017
12/31/2017
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#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
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#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
+ ST Borrowings
+ Current Portion of LT Debt
+ Other ST Liabilities
+ Deferred Revenue
+ Derivatives & Hedging
+ Deferred Tax Liabilities
+ Misc ST Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
+ LT Debt
+ LT Borrowings
+ Other LT Liabilities
+ Accrued Liabilities
+ Pension Liabilities
+ Deferred Revenue
+ Deferred Tax Liabilities
+ Derivatives & Hedging
+ Misc LT Liabilities
Total Noncurrent Liabilities
Total Liabilities
+ Preferred Equity and Hybrid Capital
+ Share Capital & APIC
+ Common Stock
+ Additional Paid in Capital
– Treasury Stock
+ Retained Earnings
+ Other Equity
Equity Before Minority Interest
+ Minority/Non Controlling Interest
Total Equity
Total Liabilities & Equity
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Reference Items
Accounting Standard
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Shares Outstanding
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Pension Obligations
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Future Minimum Operating Lease Obligations
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Options Granted During Period
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Options Outstanding at Period End
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Net Debt
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Net Debt to Equity
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Tangible Common Equity Ratio
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Current Ratio
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Number of Employees
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Source: Bloomberg
Right click to show data transparency (not supported for all values)
FY 2018
12/31/2018
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orted for all values)
Investment Analysis Deliverable Template
Fall 2019
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